Anecdotally, it seems like people are dropping like flies lately.
More so than at the peak of the Covid related deaths in the Spring of 2020.
We finally had the time to find “death statistics” for the State of New Jersey, so we charted the data to see if the anecdotes are supported by the actual numbers.
The chart below, we believe is the most meaningful, as we explain.
New Jersey Estimated Excess Deaths by Month – January 2015 to June 2022.
Explanation:
The chart below shows the percentage difference of recorded deaths compared to the estimated number of deaths for each month starting January 2015 and ending June 2022 (the latest month data is available.)
Each “Blue Bar” represents the negative percentage difference from the average number of deaths in the month.
ie. The average (expected) number of deaths was 100. The actual number of deaths was 95. The negative percentage difference is therefore -5%.
Each “Red Bar” represents the positive percentage difference from the average number of deaths in the month.
ie. The average (expected) number of deaths was 100. The actual number of deaths was 105. The positive percentage difference is therefore +5%.
The estimated number of deaths is based on the pre-covid average for each month from 2015 to 2019.
Example:
-
- Deaths in January 2015 = 4,369
- Deaths in January 2016 = 3,998
- Deaths in January 2017 = 4,289
- Deaths in January 2018 = 4,556
- Deaths in January 2019 = 4,232
- Average Deaths for January (or, estimated deaths for “January”) = 4,289
Chart Data Criteria:
- State of New Jersey
- Ages 25 to 84
- Deaths classified by the NJ Department of Health as “Covid Deaths” are removed.
- Since every Covid Death is an “Excess Death”, and no Deaths were categorized as Covid related prior to March 2020, removing Covid Deaths allows for a comparison between pre-Covid months and months with Covid Deaths (March 2020 to June 2022.)
